preface
When we search for Vietnamese goods on various e-commerce platforms, Vietnamese rice noodles with light packaging are the most popular category. Transparent Vietnamese spring roll leather, all kinds of scents and bottle shaped perfume like Vietnamese girls' traditional dresses will also be pushed to your eyes. Vietnam is one of the countries with fast economic growth in Asia and even the world. This is not just the focus that started this year. The capital with a keen sense of smell has already been laid out, and the economic growth and foreign trade data of this country with high growth for many years have been available.
Affected by the COVID-19, Vietnam's GDP growth rate in 2020 and 2021 is only 2.91% and 2.58% respectively. Vietnam's GDP growth rate in the first nine months of 2022 was 8.83%, of which the GDP growth rate in the third quarter reached 13.6%, the highest level since 2011, and the economic recovery began two years after the severe impact of the epidemic. The trade data concerned by the outside world are as follows: in the first half of 2022, the export volume increased by 17.3% year on year, reaching US $185.94 billion; imports increased by 15.5% year on year to US $185.23 billion. In the first quarter, Vietnam's export of goods reached 88.58 billion US dollars, up 12.9% year on year. When people compared the economic data released by Vietnam in the first quarter with some Chinese cities that were affected by the COVID-19 epidemic in the same period, Vietnam suddenly became the focus of attention.
Tracing back to the history of Vietnam's domestic economic development, in 1986, less than 10 years after China proposed reform and opening up in 1978, Vietnam opened the prelude to "reform and opening up" in a form similar to China's reform and opening up. Vietnam is expected to become one of the most competitive manufacturing bases in the Asia Pacific region in the next 10 years, from its policy preparation of "innovation and opening up" for decades to its ideas and methods of promoting economic and social development. It is said in public opinion that Vietnam may become another "world factory" after China, which is an unregulated concept. Whether it is established or not is not within the scope of our discussion and concern. We think it is necessary to analyze the economic and trade exchanges between China and Vietnam and the transfer of Chinese enterprises to Vietnam's industrial chain.
In terms of relations with China, China is an important trading partner of Vietnam, and Vietnam has become the first choice for Chinese manufacturing enterprises to transfer part of their industrial chains to Southeast Asia. After 40 years of reform and opening up, China has experienced a period of rapid economic development, and now has entered the upstream position of the global industrial chain in many fields, which is different from Vietnam's current state on the global industrial chain. Recently, the export orders of Southeast Asian countries have increased greatly, which has once again triggered discussion on the transfer of industrial chain.
In fact, to further expand the scope, from a global perspective, the transfer of the manufacturing industry chain to Southeast Asia has already begun. Our report also analyzes the transfer of part of China's industrial chains to Thailand, Cambodia and Myanmar. These countries are representative in the process of China's manufacturing industry chain transferring to Southeast Asia. We found that Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia and Myanmar have their own advantages in absorbing global industrial chain transfer in different fields. China has always attached importance to the integrated development with Southeast Asian countries, and has also played an important role in the economic development of Southeast Asia through FDI, trade, immigration, business trips, overseas entrepreneurship and other dimensions.
Recently, China and Vietnam issued the Joint Statement on Further Strengthening and Deepening the China Vietnam Comprehensive Strategic Cooperative Partnership. China expressed its willingness to accelerate the docking of development strategies with Vietnam, promote connectivity between the two countries, jointly build a stable industrial chain supply chain system, encourage strong and reputable technology intensive enterprises to invest in Vietnam, and deepen cooperation between the two countries in areas such as health care, green development, digital economy, and addressing climate change. The Vietnamese side said that it is willing to work with the Chinese side to play and enhance the effectiveness of the existing cooperation mechanisms between the two countries, especially the role of the Vietnam China Bilateral Cooperation Steering Committee, and promote the further docking of the "two corridors and one circle" and the "the Belt and Road" initiatives.
At the same time, RCEP has achieved remarkable results in the past year, which has played an important role in promoting the economic and trade development of the region.
This report also takes the Chinese enterprises that have built factories in Vietnam investigated by the First Institute of Finance and Economics as a typical case to observe the transfer of the industrial chain.
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Since this year, the export orders of Southeast Asian countries have increased significantly, and the market has paid more attention to the transfer of the industrial chain to Southeast Asia.
1、 Vietnam
1. Vietnam's economy shows high growth
We refer to the three economic indicators "new industrial power consumption", "new railway freight volume" and "new medium - and long-term bank loans" included in the Keqiang Index to investigate Vietnam's economic status.
1) Strong industrialization has driven the demand for energy and electricity
Electricity consumption reflects the activity of industrial production and the operation status of enterprises from the side. According to the data of the International Energy Agency (IEA), the peak power consumption in Vietnam will reach 209.5 billion kWh in 2019. With the spread of the COVID-19, Vietnam's electricity consumption will decline to the level of 2016 in 2020. In 2021, as the economy and society gradually return to normal, Vietnam's power consumption will resume growth. The report of EVN shows that in September 2022, Vietnam's national power consumption will be 22.645 billion kWh, an increase of 18.6% over the same period last year; From January to September, the cumulative electricity consumption was 204.359 billion kWh, up 6.3% over the same period last year. The strong industrialization process boosted the demand for energy and electricity. With the rapid economic development, the contradiction between supply and demand of electricity in Vietnam has become increasingly prominent.
2) Although affected by the epidemic situation, Vietnam's freight volume is still growing rapidly
Railway freight volume refers to the total amount of goods transported by railway in a region within a certain period of time, which can reflect the industrial and agricultural production and the overall economic operation status of the region from the perspective of logistics. Vietnam's railway network is connected to the international railway system through Laojie and Tongdeng border railway stations. Vietnam's freight trains can be transferred to Kazakhstan, Russia, Mongolia, Central Asia and European countries through China. In recent years, despite the impact of the epidemic, Vietnam's freight volume is still growing rapidly. In 2021, the international freight volume will be 1.136 million tons, an increase of 34% over 2020.
3) The demand for capital from production and operation activities is growing rapidly
The amount of loans issued refers to the total amount of loans or the scale of new loans. According to the data of the National Bank of Vietnam, as of September 16, 2022, the total amount of credit in Vietnam has increased by 10.47% compared with the end of 2021, with a year-on-year growth of 17.19%. The annual credit lines allocated by most banks have been used up. This reflects that the demand for capital from production and operation activities is growing rapidly, and the signal of economic recovery is clearer.
